As expected, the Super Bowl featured a matchup of two teams that were about as evenly-matched as you could hope for. The Indianapolis Colts played a fine game and took advantage of the many weaknesses of the Saints defense.
I was actually pretty surprised to see Gregg Williams live in a 3-man front for the majority of the game, replacing some of their better defenders (Ayodele and McCray) in favor of Jeff Charleston (leaving me screaming WTF with seeing Mitchell and Young in the game). Obviously, Williams was going to treat 11 personnel as a dime matchup, instead of nickel, counting Dallas Clark as a receiver. Point being, it was remarkable to see a defense come out in the biggest game of the season in a look they rarely relied upon all year.
With that, it would appear that Williams (B.Ryan protege) took a page out of Rex Ryan's NY Jets game plan from last week, and threw some double-eagle ("46") Cover 1 on the Colts. Again, rather uncharacteristic of what they've done all season.
I did some experimenting of my own for this game, relying on a steady dose of Guinness and Strongbow (known as a 'Black Velvet' or 'Velvetene') to create an amazingly smooth taste ala a Black and Tan.
* for some perspective here (impact on the state), up here in "East Texas, Louisiana" (Shreveport-Bossier), at about 9:00 pm CST, AT&T cell towers were overloaded and remained crippled until 5 am this morning.
Mango Mango on Bourbon St. last night (after Porter INT)
Manning attempts 11-20 of a Game is where he has his highest QB rating 111.7 attempts 31+ of a Game is where he has his worst QB rating 81.4
Brees attempts 1-10 of a Game is Where he has his highest QB rating of 117.7 attempts 11-20 of a Game is Where he has his Lowest QB rating of 99.1
the Third Quarter is typically Manning's worst 6 of his interceptions were thrown in this quarter(most of any quarter) qb rating 81.6 (lowest of any quarter) Half of his sacks have come in the Third quarter 66.4 completion percentage(lowest of any quarter)
the Fourth Quarter is typically Manning's best 1 interceptions qb rating of 115.3 3 sacks 71.8 completion percentage
the Second Quarter is typically Brees's Worst 7 interceptions thrown in this quarter qb rating of 105.9 8 sacks 64.2 completion percentage
the First Quarter is typically Brees's Best 2 interceptions thrown qb rating of 114.9 5 sacks 79.9 completion percentage
Manning's best quarter is slightly better than Drew's Best quarter Drew's Worst Quarter is way better than Manning's Worst quarter
since the game will be played on Grass Brees on Grass QB Rating 98.1 He has been sacked 8 times on grass compared to 12 on turf
Brees has been worse on Grass this year than turf pretty much the opposite of Manning
Manning on Grass QB Rating 121.1 He has been sacked 3 times on Grass compared to 7 on turf
Manning has been way better on grass as opposed to turf this season all of his stats are actually better on Grass
Since we both will technically be away lets see how both did away
Brees 98.1 QB rating Sacked 11 out of his 20 times 67.8 completion percentage
Manning 112.6 QB Rating (better than at home) sacked 3 out of his 10 times 73.2 completion percentage
Manning has been way better on the Road this year. Lets look at situations they may face in games
Both dangerous within last 2 minutes but as you can see Manning is beastly within last 2
since we know both of these quarterbacks are great when playing with a lead, lets compare them win behind
Brees Behind by 1-8 points 128.9 qb rating 7 of his sacks have happened when down by 1-8 74.2 completion percentage
Behind by 9-16 86.0 qb rating 2 of his sacks have happened when down by 9-16 66.7 completion percentage
Manning behind by 1-8 qb rating 116.2 7 of his 10 sacks have happened when down by 1-8 71.6 completion percentage
behind by 9-16 qb rating 58.4 3 of his 10 sacks happened when down by 9-16 60.5 completion percentage
as you can see this year Brees has been the Better QB when down and should fare better if he falls behind than if Manning Falls behind
One last aspect of game we'll look at final 7 minutes of 4th quarter
Manning 135.8 qb rating 2 of his sacks happened in the final 7 minutes in the final 7 minutes he has a 75% completion rate
Brees 108.2 qb rating 2 of his sacks happened in the final 7 minutes in the final 7 minutes he has a 73% completion rate
Though both were very good this year in final minutes Manning has the edge in the waning minutes of a game
Drew Brees has accomplished all of the following throwing the ball 39 (that's an entire game)fewer times than Manning through 14 games:
If Drew Brees has a shot at breaking Otto Grahams single season record for yards per attempt of 8.63 (Drew is at 8.54)
Drew has a shot of breaking Ken Anderson's completion % record in a single season of 70.55% (Drew is at 70.6%)
Drew Brees leads the NFL with 36 touchdowns- 34 pass and 2 rush.
Drew Brees leads the NFL with 70.6% completion percentage.
Drew Brees leads the NFL in first down passing, 150/212 completing 70.8% with 1900 yards, 8.96 yards per attempt, 18 passing TD's, 2 rushing TD's, and 2 int for a QB rating of 122.8; for the down that sets the tone of down and distance, Drew Brees is by far the best QB in the NFL.
Drew is the best on second down with a passer rating of 99.8
Drew Brees leads the NFL in passer rating with 109.6
Drew Brees is leads the NFL in redzone scoring, with 23 TD's (21 pass and 2 rush) to go with 16 more rushing TD's by our RB's.
Drew Brees leads the #1 overall offense in yards and scoring, having a very rare top 5 rushing (5th) and passing attack (3rd).
Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing against the blitz, with a rating of 129.8 and 13 TD's and 9.91 yards per attempt.
*Drew Bress leads the NFL in downfield passing --passes 21 yards or more in the air, before the catch-- Drew is.... 29/48 (60.4%) for 1024 yards, 12TD's and 3 ints Manning is 16/54 (29.6%) for 534 yards 7TD's, 4 ints.
Drew Brees is the best with passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage with a passer rating of 111.5
Drew brees is also the best with passes thrown 11-20 yards (in air from LOS) with a passer rating of 99.9
*Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing inside the numbers with a passer rating of 117.9, 21 TD's, 9.5 yards per attempt, and 68.8%
Drew Brees is the best throwing to the left side with a passer rating of 114.6
Drew Brees is the best throwing to the left sideline with a passer rating of 97.8
Drew Brees is the best throwing to the right side with a passer rating of 138.0
Drew Brees is the best throwing to the right sideline with a passer rating of 103.1
Drew Brees is best in passing yards per ATTEMPT with 8.54
Drew Brees is the best passing out of the shotgun with a rating of 106.5
Drew Brees is the best passing out of a lone setback with a rating of 114.6
Drew Brees is the best in the first 8 games of the season with a passer rating of 106.1
Drew Brees is the best in games 9-16 of the season with a passer rating of 113.4
Drew Brees is the best in games he wins with a passer rating of 112.3
Drew Brees is the best in a final margin of victory of 15+ points with a passer rating of 136.8
Drew Brees is the best in a margin of victory of 0-7 points with a passer rating of 101.8
Drew Brees is the best on turf, with a passer rating of 114.4
Drew Brees is the best indoors with a passer rating of 118.0
Drew Brees is the best vs the NFC with a passer rating of 114.1
Drew Brees is the best in division play with a passer rating of 112.2
Drew Brees is the best in September with a passer rating of 118.1
Drew Brees is the best in November with a passer rating of 120.2
Drew Brees is the best in December with a passer rating of 103.7
Drew Brees is the best when playing from behind by 1-8 points with a passer rating of 126.3
Drew Brees is the best when playing from behind by 9-16 points with a passer rating of 86.0
Drew Brees is the best in passer rating when playing with a lead (any marigin, all splits and collectively) with 123.1
Drew Brees is the best in his first 10 passing attempts with a QB rating of 115.2-- Talk about setting the tone early.
Drew has by far the best passer rating with attempts 21+. In other words, once Drew throws more than 20 times in a game (normally when a QB's throws are of most importance because it is later in the game) completing 69.2% for 1816 yards and 16 TD's, Drew is the best with a rating of 116.1!
Drew Brees has thrown ZERO!! 0 interceptions in the 4th quarter.
Drew Brees is the best in the last two minutes of a half, with 7TD's (6 pass, 1 rush), 9 20+ yard throws, and a qb rating of 104.0
Drew Brees is the best in the first half with a passer rating of 106.3
Drew Brees is the best in the second half with a passer rating of 113.9
Drew Brees is the best in the first quarter with a passer rating of 110.7
Drew Brees is the best in the second quarter with a passer rating of 101.8
Drew Brees is the best in the third quarter with a passer rating of 114.6
Drew Brees has a passer rating of 113.4 in the 4th quarter
Drew Brees is the best at home, by far, with a passer rating of 120.1.
Drew Brees is the best with 1 or more TE's in formation with passer ratings of 111.1 (1 TE), 110.8 (2 TE), and 132.4 (3+ TE)
Drew Brees is the best with NO TE in the formation with a passer rating of 95.7
Drew Brees is the best with 2 and 3 WR sets, with a passer rating of 99.2 (2 wr) and 111.1 (3 wr)
Drew Brees is the best when sending a man in motion with a passer rating of 134.6.
Drew Brees is the best with NO motion with a passer rating of 108.4
Manning leads Drew with 15 interceptions. Manning has 17 more passing yards than Drew.
Manning has a better passer rating for away games with 116.3 Manning plays better during a loss with a passer rating of 95.7 (to Drew's 95.4) Manning has a better rating when winning by 8-14 points of 87.5 (to Drew's 85.6) Manning has a better passer rating in the month of October with 111.9 Manning has a better passer rating on grass with 121.9 Manning has a better passer rating outdoors with 102.1 Manning has a better passer rating vs the AFC with a 98.2 (to Drew's 95.4) Manning has a better passer rating the 4th qtr with 116.0 Manning has a better passer rating during attempts 11-20 with 113.2 Manning has a better passer rating on third down with 114.0 Manning has a better passer rating on fourth down with 126.7 Manning has a better passer rating when the game is tied with 117.1 Manning has a better passer rating throwing to the middle with 126.4 Manning has a better passer rating with passes thrown 1-10 yards (in air) with 99.6 Manning has a better passer rating with 4+ WR's in formation at 114.6
I’m, as are you, looking forward to a great matchup this weekend for the Super Bowl. I really was hoping for this matchup of two great teams going at it for a competitive game. I’m not sure how anyone can come away from this matchup and believe there is a clearly decided superior going into the game. Both teams have equal performances and big-play capabilities. I think one should temper the Conference Championship games with some perspective, however;
The Minnesota Vikings battled the Saints the entire season for supremacy of the NFC every week.
The New York Jets were thought to be eliminated from playoff contention in November.
That being said, I would enjoy a Saints victory on a personal level and also for what it would do for New Orleans and the entire state of Louisiana. The weeks following the NFC Championship game have been euphorically uplifting to all the citizens of the Boot. As a football enthusiast, I would settle for just watching two teams compete at a high level, with an emphasis on execution.
I just want to illustrate a few points leading up to the game. First and foremost, it is imperative that the Saints get off to a fast start. Sean Payton has been methodical for the past few seasons by opening games with an up-tempo, scripted series. This is how the Saints establish the rhythm they carry throughout the game. Often times, they may not even huddle in the opening drives – they will do little shifting or motions to start out. I really hope they get back to these ‘basics’ for the Super Bowl, as it was absent during the Dallas Cowboys regular season game as well as the NFC Championship game. Not necessarily the tempo, but the play selection of “what the Saints do”. In the games that the Saints dominate on offense and get into an unstoppable groove, occur after they stress defenses out horizontally and vertically. They work the 3-step game better than any other team in the league – I hope they return to this attitude in this game. This is the crux of setting up runs by Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, and now Lionel Hamilton (Mike Bell, what happened?), screens, reverses, and boot action.
Also, I would really hope they stress the Colts defense out quickly with their empty package. It makes protection that much simpler as well as creating the horizontal divide of underneath defenders that more pronounced (as seen in these clips). All concepts are the quick 3-step, alleviating issues with Indianapolis’ pass rush (with or without Freeney).
While the Colts have struggled this season in establishing their run game, I must say that their most effective weapon comes from their play-action passing, as that involves the mastery of quarterback, Peyton Manning. It almost sounds like an oxymoron (that play-action remains effective when their actual run game struggles), but as you will see, Manning’s execution of ball fakes (and Howard Mudd’s offensive line’s footwork) is what makes this work. In these clips with Edgerrin James (pre-Dallas Clark days) and Joseph Addai (Clark era), the effectiveness of Manning to blow the top off of coverages, may be an Achilles Heel for New Orleans defense, whose linebackers have difficulty in controlling the seams.
Unfortunately, I think the matchup that certainly favors the Colts is the Lija/Saturday/DeVan vs Ellis(Hargrove)/Ayodole combination. This, of course, will be the lynch-pin for establishing the inside zone running, and Ayodele is not partiularly stout at handling doubles. Also, the WLB, Scott Shanle, (who remains in with Vilma in nickel situations) has been victimized throughout the past seasons with his athletic shortcomings. I anticipate the Saints playing a lot of quarters in an Under front, with SLB Fujita rolled up in a 9 tech on Cloherty (as Dallas Clark will take his usual spot as a slot/flex) to help control perimeter stretch game.
For the Who Dats reading this, enjoy this new Zydecco rally song performed by cajun guitarist, Kip Bacque, as well as the return of NFL Analyst, Poo Poo Broussard.
