Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Quarterbacks: More Than Just Throwers

interesting piece in today's WSJ regarding how to judge quarterback efficiency and play on more than just throwing alone

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704312504575618762643111900.html

"That would take in the ability to move a team down the field," he said. "That would take in running ability." His argument, it turned out, foreshadowed a more intuitive formula devised by David Berri, a sports economist at the University of Southern Utah and the co-author of the book "The Wages of Wins."

Dr. Berri's system, which he called QB Score, analyzed data to determine which aspects of a game contributed most to a team's scoring or surrendering points. It places greater value on all the yards a quarterback gains (regardless of how he gains them) and on turnovers (including fumbles). A quarterback's rushing totals aren't a huge factor, Dr. Berri said, but they're taken into greater account.

8 comments:

Coach Hoover said...

Interesting. I would like to see this measure applied to college QBs.

Kevin said...

Hey, completely off topic comment. What about some info or dialogue about the flex TE? I'd like to hear a breakdown on how some teams are using that set for runs, while keeping the pass threat.

salt_bagel said...

I think this is a great idea. I'd really like to see a calculation of yards per dropback, which would be similar to yards per pass attempt, but would account for scrambles (and sacks, which are handled differently in pro versus college).

For a theoretical quarterback, when is it the optimal strategy to take off and run? And how often do offenses build take-off reads into pass plays? In other words, if you have a scrambling qb, wouldn't it make sense to have reads built in to pass plays that say something like, "if man, then scramble is your #2 read"?

brophy said...

that decision logic is essentially what Darin Slack C4 method is

salt_bagel said...

Then the next question would be: Can that logic be statistically supported using scramble yardage numbers? In other words, with statistics and analysis of past plays, can you figure out past success rates with scramble vs. try-to-find-a-receiver, and figure out whether a quarterback is running too much, or staying in the pocket too much?

I can also see where you could use these stats as a more objective way to analyze play calling, or even adjust reads based on the talent you have.

Sorry, I know this isn't a stats blog, but it's just interesting that it's taken so long for statistical measures to catch up to the reality.

salt_bagel said...

I thought Slack was about training QB fundamentals and thought processes. Do they also train offensive coaching and schemes, too?

brophy said...

I don't believe stats will/can be the final arbiter of efficiency. You can grade a quarterback's performance that takes into account each situation in its proper context. With game performance grading, you could determine if the quarterback is correctly processing his assignments/reads efficiently.....I'm not sure stats alone could give you that.The Slack R4 method/processing of a pass concept. It is applicable to any offense and tailor-made for every 5-step concept.

Todd said...

great article

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